Grain Gleanings

Reminders

By Becky Johnson, Elevator Location Manager, Salem

With another harvest wrapped up, a presidential election over, stable weather in South America, continued upheaval between Russia and Ukraine, and much needed precipitation in our area, the grain markets are reacting negatively this week, especially soybeans.   China did purchase 7.421 million bushels of soybeans Wednesday morning. We will see if that has a positive influence on the beans in the next couple of days.

A reminder for those of you storing grain on your farm.  It is a good idea to take the time once the wind & snow have tapered off to check and make sure the roof doors on your bins are closed securely and that you cannot smell any strong odor coming from your bins.  If you look inside your bin from the top door check to see if you have a crust forming on the grain.  It is never a bad idea to take the peaks off your grain if possible.

Now that the weather is getting cooler it may not be a bad idea to also run your aeriation fans when the humidity is down even for just a couple of days to help cool the grain down inside the bin.

Even though grain was relatively dry it is a good rule of thumb to keep an eye on your grain especially with the winds we have been having and the snow and rain. This moisture can seep inside your bin without you realizing and quickly turn well quality grain into low quality in a blink of an eye.

Wishing all a very Blessed Thanksgiving!

11/22/2024

Wrapping Up Harvest

By Hunter Behrens, Grain Originator, Lyons

Harvest has ramped down this week with a few producers finishing up. Harvest came and went in a blur with favorable moisture levels and minimal rain delays besides high wind days that could have created some delays. Soybean yields for the most part came in around average for the Lyons area with some higher yields to be desired with the way the crop looked before the dry spell we experienced through August and September. As of Thursday, the price of soybeans is weaker since bean harvest started in late September where beans rallied almost $1.00 from August nearly scratching $10 cash on September 27^th as we sit today beans are nearing $9.35. Corn yields seemed to meet or exceed expectations for most producers unless they experienced drowning out from the flooding this spring. The corn price through harvest has stayed steady around the $3.80 cash range with corn topping out in the mid $3.90s.

On Tuesday night the republican party won the election, and the stock market reacted favorably to that news having one of its best sessions in 2 years. Even commodities rallied shortly with that news but overall, a Red victory is expected to increase tariffs on China and Mexico which could have a negative effect on corn and soybean prices. Speaking of foreign affairs, exports for corn and soybeans are up 10+ percent from the previous 4-week average with corn net sales at 2,766,500 up 18% and soybeans net sales at 2,037,200 up 10%. South America had a favorable planting season and has received enough rain the past 30 days to expect normal emergence. The 2-week forecast calls for less than normal rainfall in southern Brazil and northern Argentina.

We appreciate everyone who delivered grain to our facilities and are happy to help during the busy time of harvest. Now that harvest is wrapping up and equipment is being put away please reach out to your local CFC originator to get a plan in place on the grain you have left for the rest of this marketing year.

11/8/2024

Marketing Strategy

By Jeff Moritz, Lead Grain Merchandiser

As we close out the month of October, harvest is completed or wrapping up rather quickly for most of our locations.  Throughout the fall I have heard from many of our customers, and they were very appreciative and impressed with how our operations staff managed the truck flow and volume. In the case of corn, setting high water marks for company-wide receipts in the last 5 years. I know that does not happen without their effort and dedication to serve you during harvest and your ability to bring in the crop. It’s much appreciated.

Now that the task of harvesting the crop is completed and in the bin, the task of marketing is not. In fact, it is just the beginning. What are your plans and price goals for your corn and soybeans? The carries or premiums that currently exist in the deferred months are providing opportunities to market your crop at better values than what exists in the nearby cash market. Moreover, as is mostly the case with typical ‘carrying charge’ markets, at better values than when deferred delivery price becomes the nearby price.

In the case of soybeans, there is a 15-cent carry (premium) from the current January futures to the March futures and 30 cent premium to the May futures. From a chart perspective the soybeans charts are beginning to recover from an oversold condition and appear to have made a double bottom. Some price targets to make sales against are the 50 day and 100 day moving averages which are usually major resistance areas. Those are the $10.40 and $10.60 in the March futures and $10.50 and $10.75 in the May futures. With deferred basis values where they are currently, that could mean an upper $9.00 cash or even just over $10.00 cash for select delivery periods. With the South American production cycle on soybeans just beginning and with domestic soybean crush margins being very favorable and the push to the expand demand for renewable fuels, the potential is there to have enough volatility to reach these price levels.

In the corn market there are also attractive carries (premiums). There is 15 cents futures (board) carry from December to the March Futures and another 9 cents to the May Futures. The corn market has made a recovery from mid-October and has been advancing higher over the last two weeks overall. Similar to Soybeans, I would utilize moving averages on the charts as price level targets to make sales. The 50-day moving average for the March futures is currently between $4.30 and $4.35. Another level that I suggest considering is the $4.40 to $4.45 March futures price as the market made a high on the chart back in early October. That will be a key area of resistance. Observing prices out in May futures, the 50-day moving average is $4.40-$4.45 and the early October price high of $ 4.55 to $4.60. Consider those as attractive targets to take some price risk off the table. With good local domestic demand from ethanol and feed, basis levels should remain firm into the deferred delivery periods. There is a very real chance that by executing on these targets it means marketing $4.00 to $4.25 cash corn. Ethanol margins remain very profitable, and we have seen the USDA have to adjust feed demand higher in the last 4 WASDE (S&D) reports. It is a lot more palatable to feed $3.00 and $4.00 than $6.00 and $7.00 corn. While it is true we have a large crop that we just finished harvesting, the corn market has a genuinely nice demand story developing and there is more opportunity for price advancement going forward to achieve the price levels that were just presented.

If this marketing strategy is of interest to you for your operation, reach out to your local CFC originator and they would be happy to discuss your marketing plans with you. As always, we genuinely appreciate your consideration in doing business with us this harvest and look forward to serving you in the future.

11/1/2024

Central Farmers has a mobile app that provides real time account information at your hands. By partnering with barchart, we are able to empower you, our producers, to make informed and quicker business decisions with CFC. With our app you can:

• Access scale tickets virtually in real time, allowing you to know how many bushels you have delivered and how much still needs to be delivered. You are able to see the grade factors on each scale ticket such as Moisture and Test Weight.
• Access your contracts that you have with any CFC location. You will be able to see the status of any contract to find out whether it is filled or is still open.
• Access real-time bushel balances of your grain across all CFC locations.
• Access delayed cash bids for all of our CFC locations

You can find our App on Google Play for Android devices or the App Store for iPhones by searching for Central Farmers. Scan the QR code below for quicker download process. Download it today!