Grain Gleanings

Looking Good!

By Becky Johnson, Elevator Location Manager, Salem

Hard to believe that harvest is just around the corner.  Weather has caused some issues in areas around South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa over the last week but all in all the crops are coming along very nicely.

The crops at this time look as though they might be the best yield we have had in some time, but a lot can happen between now and harvest.

The markets continue to reflect on the anticipation that crops are going to be bountiful throughout the USA.    You may want to look at the benefits of what a basis contract has to offer.  Grain Originators and Grain Location Managers are available to help with questions you may have along with offering you other options we have available that may benefit you in your market strategies.

Please use caution when pulling up to a stop sign in the rural areas for the corn stalks are tall, making visibility difficult especially pulling out onto roadways.

Wishing all an uneventful rest of your growing season and a good rest of your summer.

8/1/2025

Anticipation

By Hunter Behrens, Grain Originator, Lyons

Early Thursday morning the USDA reported sale of 135,000 metric tons of US new crop corn to China as well as another three plus boats of new crop corn to unknown. Roughly a half hour later the USDA released another statement that the China sale has been confirmed incorrect. The short-lived headline had the corn and soybean market rally early in the session but settled lower by the end with corn three cents higher and beans up a penny respectively. Widespread precipitation and overall good weather throughout the corn belt has been the main reason for the corn and soybean market making summertime lows. The extended weather forecast calls for milder temps and regular rainfall during the first half of August which will keep feeding the bear market. The US corn crop rating suggests a yield above USDA estimates and could be closer to 185 if weather continues to be favorable. Exports have been slightly lower than estimated and could increase the carryout, which will also have a negative influence on the market. Soybeans are in the same boat; anticipate yields to increase, demand to remain uncertain and weather to stay favorable.

7/25/2025

Price Offers and Marketing Alternatives

By Jeff Moritz, Lead Grain Merchandiser

Corn and Soybean prices rebounded this week after a friendly data dump of the USDA WASDE Report last Friday that actually sent prices slumping. This price action we’ve seen this week signals to me that prices may have bottomed in the short term as the markets watch the weather for the home stretch of the US production cycle.

There has been some recent talk of tassle wrap and some other pollination issues making headlines, but I get the sense this is anecdotal and isolated at best. Overall the weather has been pretty ideal for most of the Corn Belt. In fact in talking to many of you over the past couple of weeks, the crop looks as good as we’ve ever seen in the trade area or at least in the past 7 or 8 years.

This weeks demand headlines were mostly bearish as Weekly Export Sales for corn were only 4 million bushels with Mexico cancelling some old crop purchase and Weekly Ethanol production was in line with expections but there are concerns that the USDA may have to lower the old crop demand projection going forward in future WASDE Reports. Of course the Social Media post from President Trump about Coca Cola switching sweetners from HFCS (High Fructose Corn Syrup) to Cane Sugar may have added to corn’s defensive tone late this week.  410 million bushels of corn demand each year come from the production of HFCS. I’m sure Farm Groups and Corn Refiners alike will have something to say about the potential switch. Soybean Exports Sales were in line with expectations and ran ahead of the needed projected pace estimated by the USDA. Soybean oil price performance has been the shining star posting a 19% gain in price since the EPA’s biofuel announcement on June 13^th .

Price seasonals seem to have a strong hold on defensive price action as we head into late July and August. This recent rebound seems more like a recovery from recent lows than a long-term move higher. If anything I think it is an opportunity to move remaining old crop to make way for what appears to be a rather large supply coming and to price another increment of new crop prodution.  Some levels that I would target for Corn would be the chart gap that occurred after the July 4^th holiday of $4.15 September Futures for old crop and $4.31 December Futures for new crop. For the Soybeans I would place targets at the $10.30 November Futures level (the 200 day moving average) and the price gap made after The Independence Day Holiday at $10.42 November Futures. 

I’d encourage you to contact your local CFC originator and discuss placing some price offers with them as well as talking about potentially utilizing some of our marketing alternatives like Basis Contracts. With the size of the crop that appears to be on the way, communication will be very key to ensure some of the potential price and basis risk is mitigated.  As always we appreciate your business and I hope you have a great rest of the summer!

7/18/2025